2025 Coffee Predictions: How Are We Doing So Far?

Back in January, we made some bold predictions about where the coffee industry was headed this year… from decaf’s redemption arc to AI-powered quality control, Geisha normalization, and a shot at Canada’s first world coffee championship win.

Now that we’re halfway through 2025, it’s time to ask

Were we spot on? Totally off? Or somewhere in between?

This week’s newsletter is all about checking in on each prediction to see what’s already happening, what’s still brewing, and what’s looking less likely. Think of it as our mid-year report card — with trends, links, and insights you can actually use.

Let’s see what the future is serving up!

2025 Coffee Predictions: Cole’s Mid-Year Check-In

1. Decaf & Low-Caf Acceptance

Prediction: Decaf will gain more respect and visibility in specialty coffee.

Status: On Track ✅
Roasters are investing in better decaf, low-caf is trending, and more customers are choosing these options for flavor not just function. In markets like Korea and the U.S., demand is steadily climbing, especially among health-conscious drinkers and late-day sippers.

2. Packaging Innovation

Prediction: Advancements in sustainable and functional packaging for both green and roasted coffee.

Status: Slow
Innovations are underway, with companies exploring eco-friendly materials and designs. Yet, widespread adoption is still in progress…

3. 🇨🇦 Canada at World Coffee Championships 🇨🇦

Prediction: Canada will secure a win at the World Coffee Championships.

Status: Pending
Canada hasn’t taken home a World title yet….. The World Barista Championship is set for October 2025, but first, Canadian competitors will face off at Nationals this July.

4. ibrik Brewing Popularity

Prediction: The cezve (ibrik) brewing method will gain popularity in cafes

Status: WRONG! ❌ ❌ ❌
We said on the predictions podcast that if even one cafe had Ibrik on the menu, we’d count it as a win. Well… no luck, big guy. Still waiting for that copper pot comeback.

5. 🍹 Signature & Classic Drinks on Menus 🍹

Prediction: Cafes will standardize signature beverages and classic drinks like the "dirty" and "magic."

Status: Adopted ✅
Signature drinks are the new pour-over menu. They’re everywhere…. playful, creative, and definitely cool. From clarified lattes to espresso “mocktails,” nearly every specialty cafe is flexing its flavor game.
Not the riskiest prediction ever made… but hey, take the win. (Still waiting on our Ibrik era.)

6. 🛋️ Cafe Design Evolution 🛋️

Prediction: Cafes will move away from sterile minimalism toward more expressive, personality-filled spaces.

Status: Evolving
While clean, white-box cafes still exist, more shops are leaning into bold colors, trinkets, vintage furniture, and playful design choices. It’s not a full rebellion yet but the shift is happening….

7. Geisha Normalization

Prediction: Geisha will become a standard offering in specialty cafes.

Status: On Track ✅
More cafes are offering Geishas as limited pours or competition features. Still a premium item, but access is improving ….especially from producers like Esmeralda, Lamastus, and Mount Totumas

8. 🧪 Engineered Coffees in the Wild, Not on Stage 🧪

Prediction: Infused/co-fermented coffees will grow in cafes, but see less play in competitions.
Status: Mixed 🤷
We’re seeing more cafes embrace engineered coffees… while competitors seem to be trying everything. The hype is still there, but the spotlight feels more balanced than last year…

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Cole’s 2025 Coffee Predictions: Mid-Year Scorecard

Back in January, Cole laid down 8 bold predictions for where coffee might go in 2025. Now that we’ve reached the halfway point, here’s how they’re holding up…

3 predictions are clearly happening…
(Decaf is rising, Signature drinks are everywhere, Geisha is showing up more often)

2 are in the gray zone…
(Engineered coffees, Packaging innovation is still in motion)

2 are still developing…
(Canada’s WBC run is pending, Cafe design is starting to shift)

❌ 1 missed the mark ❌
Ibrik!?!?

Next week, we’ll break down Dave’s predictions! Including the rise of AI in QC, grab-and-go coffee shops, and the great comeback of blends.

Reading: Cafe Core is 2025’s big design trend…think cozy vibes, vintage touches, and your favorite coffee shop’s comfort brought home. Elle Decor breaks it down in this quick read.

Watching: People always ask what our roastery looks like… well, here you go!
This one-hour single-shot video from Rosso Coffee Roasters captures the full vibe with beans crackling, our roaster humming, and some groovy lo-fi tunes in the background. Perfect to throw on while you’re working, studying, or just vibing.

Listening: If you’re listening closely, you’ll catch first crack 🫠 

Brewing: A single espresso…9 grams of coffee to match the 9 bars of pressure.
Classic, sweet, and balanced. Just make sure you’re using the right-sized portafilter basket. That’s the real secret to making singles sing.

Distance: Buy the Drip run club. Clocking some kilometers. Help us push a few more kilometers through this week?

Want to join us as we hit the road? Let’s connect on Strava! or, join our Whoop group - just respond to the email and let’s grind together!