Brazil Coffee Deep Dive

IF coffee had a capital, it might very well be Brazil. As the world’s largest coffee producer it’s responsible for roughly one-third of global output. Brazil doesn’t just power the supply chain…. it shapes prices, trade flows, and global taste. This edition of Buy The Drip explores how Brazil balances its massive commercial infrastructure with a rapidly growing specialty coffee movement.

Production Snapshot

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production (July–June) is forecast at 65 million 60-kg bags (WOW!), up slightly from about 64.7 million the prior year. Forecasts show a decline in arabica to 40.9 million bags, while robusta climbs to 24.1 million, aided by favorable weather and improved irrigation in Espírito Santo and Bahia

Exports are projected at 41.7 million bags, a reduction from 44.25 million in 2024/25. Brazil’s share of global coffee production stands at approximately 31%, depending on methodology….close to the "one-third" commonly cited.

A Brief History

Coffee was illegally introduced to Brazil in 1727, and by the 1840s, Brazil accounted for 40% of global coffee output. Its dominance peaked in the early 20th century.

A devastating frost in 1975 drove production into safer, warmer zones and accelerated mechanization. That history of adaptation underpins Brazil’s modern lead in both volume and innovation

The Commercial Backbone

Brazil didn’t become the world’s top coffee producer by chance it industrialized coffee first. By the mid-1800s, plantations in Rio and Sao Paulo were fueling global demand, supported by railroads and ports designed to move beans fast.

When the devastating frost of 1975 forced farmers to relocate to flatter, warmer zones, Brazil doubled down on mechanization. Unlike most of the world’s steep, hand-harvested farms, Brazil’s rolling terrain allowed machines to do the picking. That shift drove down labor costs, standardized quality, and cemented Brazil as the first truly industrialized coffee economy.

Today coffee brings Brazil a record US$14.7 billion in annual export revenue. In many ways, Brazil has set the commercial “floor” for global coffee: its massive output stabilizes supply, dictates price benchmarks, and provides the reliable base that roasters and traders everywhere depend on.

But dominance comes with risk with a potential 50% U.S. tariff threatens its biggest buyer ( which is about 8 million bags a year) and could accelerate a pivot toward Europe and China.

Specialty Coffee on the Rise

Brazil isn’t just a mass exporter anymore it’s actively transforming into a specialty coffee powerhouse. Over the past few years microlots and high-scoring beans have carved out a promising niche even though they remain a fraction of Brazil’s total output.

Brazil’s coffee supremacy doesn’t come solely from volume. It’s powered by a relentless focus on innovation. Precision agriculture has gone mainstream here, with tools like satellite imagery, drones, soil moisture sensors, and AI-driven advisories now used on over 70% of Brazil’s coffee farms.

These tools give real-time insights into crop health, optimize resource use, and dramatically boost both yield and environmental sustainability

Over the past two decades, researchers there managed to triple production while actually shrinking farmland by about 20%. The secret wasn’t expansion, but smarter farming…..better planting techniques, careful spacing, and even cloning the best coffee trees so their disease resistance and high yields could be repeated across entire farms.

Brazil has also been at the front of coffee genetics. The Coffee Genome Project mapped more than 33,000 coffee genes, giving farmers and breeders tools to predict plant performance, breed faster, and prepare crops for new pests and climate pressures. This mix of agronomy and cutting-edge science is why Brazil continues to set the pace for the commercial coffee world.

Wrapping It Up

Brazil isn’t just the biggest coffee producer ….it’s the backbone of the entire industry

From railroads and mechanization to precision farming and coffee genetics, Brazil has always been first to scale innovation. That’s why it still sets the price, dictates the flow, and defines the playbook for the rest of the world.

Tariffs, climate shocks, shifting demand the threats are real. But history shows Brazil doesn’t play catch-up. It adapts fast, reinvents the system, and usually comes out ahead.

“They’ve got an awful lot of coffee in Brazil.”
-The Coffee Song (1946) originally sung by Frank Sinatra

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Reading: The Infinite Game by Simon Sinek…Still grinding through this one. The big idea is playing the long game in business vs. chasing short-term wins is decent but so far it feels a bit stretched out…

Watching: Morgan Drinks Coffee joins the podcast this week! From social media virality to building a career in coffee, Morgan shares insights on creativity, community, and what it means to make coffee approachable for millions

Listening: Amii & Jimmi blend travel, cooking, and house music into a groove that feels like coffee for your ears. Perfect background for brewing or winding down.

Brewing: We’ve been tasting through Brazil ourselves, pulling shots of a pulpy natural Yellow Bourbon. Expect layers of chocolate and caramel that’s perfecto for milk!

Distance: Buy the Drip run club. Clocking some kilometers. Help us push a few more kilometers through this week?

Want to join us as we hit the road? Let’s connect on Strava! or, join our Whoop group - just respond to the email and let’s grind together!