🔮 Dave’s 2025 Coffee Predictions: Mid-Year Check-In 🔮

Cole went first. His prediction scorecard got some love (and a few laughs). Now it’s my turn to face the music.

Back in January, I laid down 8 predictions about where coffee might be headed in 2025…. some obvious, some optimistic, and a few that felt like long shots.

We’re six months in… so how are they holding up? What’s playing out as expected? What’s still brewing? And where did I miss the mark?

Let’s take a look at my mid-year report card.

1. 💰Green Coffee Prices Will Come Down 💰

Prediction: Green coffee prices will drop from 2024/2025 highs

Status: On Track ✅
After the turmoil of late 2024 when Arabica futures climbed past $3.60/lb, spiked to $4.41/lb on February 19, 2025! and topped $4.30/lb, marking highs unseen since the late 1970s. BAD Prediction here…but prices are finally easing. By early June, futures had dropped into the $3.42 – $3.60/lb range.

The pressure is slowing thanks to larger-than-expected harvests in Brazil where yields are projected to rise slightly. Stability is creeping in but relief isn’t universal.

2. AI-Powered Quality Control Will Expand

Prediction: AI will move from buzzword to daily tool in QC

Status: Emerging
AI isn’t just hype anymore — it’s already in the cupping lab. Platforms like Sovda, ProfilePrint, and smaller machine learning tools are now being used to evaluate green coffee, reduce cupping load, and predict sensory outcomes before roasting.

Large importers are testing this tech to grade faster and with more consistency. Smaller roasters are using it to improve roast curves and detect quality issues. It’s not replacing people — yet — but expect a lot more AI by year’s end.

3. Grab-and-Go Cafes Will Take Off

Prediction: Smaller… more efficient cafe models will grow….fast!

Status: On Track ✅
Fast‑drop coffee is here. Luckin Coffee in China now operates 87% pickup‑only outlets, using mobile orders and small footprints to serve ultra-fast drinks. Meanwhile, Starbucks has been piloting “Pick‑Up” locations in urban hubs like New York City and other large cities… catering exclusively to app orders

4. 🏠 Home Brewing Will Keep Growing 🏠

Prediction: Coffee lovers will build cafe level setups at home

Status: Adopted ✅
Education and curiosity are fueling this movement. James Hoffmann’s "home cafe vs real cafe" video resonated, signaling that home brewers want pro-level tools. With gear like prosumer espresso machines, refractometers, and boutique grinders gaining traction the line between home and cafe is blurring. Brands catering to this audience are gaining serious ground

5. Blends Are Back

Prediction: Blends will return as a creative + cost‑smart solution

Status:  Did They Ever Leave? Cheap Prediction
Blends are trending for good reason. Roasters are mixing origins to reduce reliance on volatile single origin prices and create signature flavor profiles.

They deliver consistency, cost control, and storytelling…all in one sip. In short: easy prediction and chalk up a win for the big guy.

6. More Inclusivity in Coffee Competitions

Prediction: Competitions will become more accessible and diverse

Status: In Progress 🙌
Diversity is growing—but not overnight. Newer formats like Barista League, April Cup, and Aeropress are raising accessibility and spotlighting a wider range of voices and origins. This shift isn’t flawless, but it’s bringing more representation, innovation, and energy into the field. The scene is richer, bolder, and far more fun.

7. Hybrid Coffee Shops Will Flourish

Prediction: Cafes will become multi‑use experience hubs

Status: On Track ✅
This is a cheap prediction…no comment on it

8. More Buy The Drip Content

Prediction: We’ll hit 52 newsletters, 40 podcasts, and 40 YouTube videos in 2025

Status: On Track ✅
We set some ambitious content goals this year—not just for the numbers, but to build rhythm, consistency, and a real platform for coffee storytelling. And we’ve done that.

Now comes the next challenge: growth.
That means broader reach, sharper stories, and a bigger coffee-loving community around Buy The Drip.

If you’ve been enjoying what we’re creating, share it with a friend or co-worker. It helps more than you know—and we seriously appreciate you.

If you click this ad below, it truely helps us build our platform here at Buy the Drip and further our ability to create content that you’ll love, weekly.

Dave’s 2025 Coffee Predictions: Mid-Year Scorecard

LFG DAVE!!

5 predictions are clearly happening…
(Green coffee prices, AI in QC, grab-and-go cafes, home brewing, blends)

3 are still developing…
(Hybrid cafes, and Buy The Drip content and Inclusivity in competitions)

❌ 0 missed the mark ❌
How bad is Cole’s pick for Ibrik!?!?

Some predictions were layups. A few are aging well. And yeah, there’s still time for a plot twist…..green pricing could creep back up by year’s end.

We’ll check back in December to see what held, what fizzled, and what surprised us all.

Reading: Sprudge is accepting nominations for their annual Sprudge Twenty — a list recognizing changemakers, community builders, and innovators in the coffee world. Got someone who’s making a difference? Nominate them (or yourself!) before the deadline

Watching: This week, check out our most-watched podcast episode on YouTube Cole sits down with Jordan Saglio of Movement Coffee Roasters. Jordan’s story is one of curiosity, risk, and passion. From living the van life with his wife and daughter to starting a roastery in Stowe, Vermont and even competing in Panama’s Brewers Cup…his journey is anything but ordinary!

Listening: Listening for first crack

Brewing: 21.5 grams in…63 grams out. Espresso days are back. Floral, sweet, balanced. Love the ritual of coffee.

Distance: Buy the Drip run club. Clocking some kilometers. Help us push a few more kilometers through this week?

Want to join us as we hit the road? Let’s connect on Strava! or, join our Whoop group - just respond to the email and let’s grind together!